Guessing VS Explaining With Data
I saw something on the TV news this morning that annoyed me.
(What else is new?)
I’m sharing this with you not to spread the annoyance, but rather to deliver a business lesson.
The news headline: The number of asylum-seekers reaching the Mexico-US border has decreased over the last few months.
The analysis: Supporters of President Trump say the decrease is due to his immigration policies. Opponents counter that the flow of migrants always slows during the summer due to the sweltering heat.
End of news story.
Ugh!
So which is it? President Trump’s policies or a predictable, weather-related decrease?
We’re all left guessing.
Reminds me of too many business meetings I’ve witnessed.
Something meaningful happens in the business — good or bad.
One person or group offers an explanation. Another person or group counters with a different explanation.
No supporting data. We’re all left guessing.
With just a little bit of digging, the media could have provided evidence to support one explanation or another.
Show me migrant flow statistics for years past (especially years prior to President Trump’s rule). Do migrant populations truly decrease in the summer months?
Interview people in Guatemala or El Salvador who have considered migrating but have not yet done so. Are they hesitating because of U.S. policy, or are they planning to go once the weather cools?
Just don’t leave me guessing.
Same goes for business.
We’re constantly explaining things in our businesses — revenue trends, the success or failure of a marketing campaign, changes in customer retention rates.
Are the explanations guesses. Or are we backing are explanations with valid data?
Don't go away yet..
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